The rules of the Middle East conflict changed fundamentally on Wednesday when Iran threatened an energy war against Gulf states following an Israeli strike on the South Pars gasfield. The Revolutionary Guards named specific facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as targets for imminent strikes and ordered evacuation. Oil prices surged toward $110 a barrel as the rule change sent shockwaves through global energy markets.
South Pars, the world’s largest natural gas reserve, is shared between Iran and Qatar and has been the cornerstone of Iran’s gas economy throughout the conflict. The Israeli strike — reportedly conducted with US authorization — was the first direct attack on Iran’s fossil fuel production. Washington and Tel Aviv had previously maintained this restraint, but their decision to change course immediately triggered Iran’s most expansive and credible military threat of the war.
Iran’s state media identified Saudi Arabia’s Samref refinery and Jubail complex, the UAE’s al-Hosn gasfield, and Qatar’s Mesaieed and Ras Laffan facilities as targets. Workers and residents were told to evacuate without any delay. The governor of Asaluyeh province condemned the Israeli attack as “political suicide” and declared the conflict had entered a full-scale economic war phase that would reshape the region’s energy landscape.
Brent crude rose nearly 5% to $108.60 a barrel, while European gas benchmarks surged more than 7.5%. Gulf oil exports had already fallen 60% from pre-war levels due to infrastructure attacks and Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran had continued shipping its own crude through the strait unimpeded while blocking Gulf neighbors from doing so — a strategic advantage that had shaped the conflict’s economic dimension throughout.
Qatar’s government spokesperson warned that targeting energy infrastructure threatened global energy security and regional populations. The changed rules of the conflict meant that energy infrastructure — once implicitly protected — was now a primary battlefield. For global energy markets, governments, and ordinary people around the world who depended on Gulf oil and gas, the changed rules carried consequences that were difficult to overstate. The coming hours would reveal just how far the new rules would be applied.