The Long Shadow: Oil to Hold 30% of Global Energy Until Late 2030s

Oil is projected to cast a long shadow over the global energy mix, maintaining a 30% share of primary energy supply well into the late 2030s, according to a disappointing assessment from BP. The energy major has raised its long-term forecasts for oil and gas demand, a clear signal that the world’s transition is too slow to achieve the crucial 2050 net-zero emissions target.
BP’s revised numbers are a powerful check on the pace of decarbonization. Oil consumption in 2050 is now projected to reach 83 million barrels per day (b/d), an 8% upward revision from the previous 77 million b/d estimate. Natural gas demand is also forecast to remain resilient, projected at 4,806 billion cubic meters annually in 2050. Furthermore, BP has delayed the expected date of peak oil demand by five years, now predicting a peak of 103 million b/d in 2030.
The persistent demand for fossil fuels is being exacerbated by global geopolitical tensions. BP’s chief economist attributes the slowdown to nations intensifying their focus on national energy security, spurred by conflicts and trade tariffs. While this security drive could potentially accelerate some states toward low-carbon ‘electrostates,’ the report also emphasizes the risk of increased reliance on domestically produced fossil fuels over imported alternatives.
The report warns that the current slow pace has severe climate implications. BP’s modeling indicates that cumulative carbon emissions are set to breach the critical 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. The company stresses that maintaining this trajectory increases the economic and social costs required for future climate stabilization. To meet the net-zero goal, BP highlights that oil demand needs to drop sharply and immediately to about 35 million b/d by 2050.
Despite rapid growth in wind and solar power, oil is forecast to hold its massive 30% share of primary global energy supply in 2035. Renewables, while expanding rapidly, are only projected to rise from 10% to 15% of the primary energy supply by 2035, and are not expected to surpass oil until the late 2040s, illustrating the decade-long inertia in the energy system.